Mitchell Pulls Ahead by 2, 3 Points

PHOENIX (By Jon Kamman, Arizona Republic) November 4, 2006 — Democrat Harry Mitchell is giving Republican Rep. J.D. Hayworth the tightest race of his career, polls, parties and analysts agree.

The national parties have poured more than $1 million apiece into the closing days of the contest, money they would use elsewhere if the Arizona race were not neck-and-neck.

This week, three nationally respected election-predicting organizations said the race is either a tossup or leaning in Mitchell's favor.

Larry Sabato, a political guru at the University of Virginia, predicted a Mitchell win. The Rothenberg Political Report listed the match-up as "tilting Democratic," and the Cook Political Report said it's a pure tossup.

A pair of polls this week put Mitchell ahead by 2 or 3 percentage points, a virtual tie considering the margin of error.

On Friday, the Wall Street Journal's top story cast Hayworth as an example of Republicans who were swept into Congress in 1994 after 40 years of Democratic dominance, and who now are in danger of being swept out amid dissatisfaction with the GOP's stewardship.

"It's definitely a Democratic wave this year," said Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the Virginia campus. "How high the wave, we can't say, but Hayworth is in his toughest battle."

Arizona's 5th Congressional District covers Fountain Hills, Scottsdale, Tempe, parts of Mesa, Chandler and east Phoenix, plus Ahwatukee Foothills.

Early in the campaign, Hayworth was assumed to be on his way to carrying the district comfortably. He enjoyed regular national television exposure, was recognized for yeoman constituent service and bringing the bacon home, and represented a district where only 28 percent of voters are Democrats.

Mitchell has campaigned on a general theme that the nation needs a bipartisan change of direction and on key issues he says require more-moderate views than Hayworth's.

The two also have scrapped over ethics.

Clear contrast

The candidates differ in persona as much as they do on immigration reform, the war in Iraq, fiscal issues and embryonic stem-cell research, which Mitchell supports and Hayworth opposes.

Mitchell, 65, is a grandfatherly figure who taught high school civics for nearly three decades, has lived in the same Tempe home for 40 years and projects more sincerity than oratorical polish in stump speeches.

His 16 years as nonpartisan mayor of Tempe and eight years on the City Council are honored with an abstract statue outside City Hall. In partisan politics, he was elected three times to the state Senate and served briefly as chairman of the state Democratic Party before launching his bid for Congress.

Hayworth, 48, came to politics 12 years ago as a television sports anchorman with commanding size and presence. Tall and no longer overweight, he grips audiences with preacherlike charisma and an absolute conviction that his conservative ideals are the nation's best course.

His passionate advocacy can both inspire and offend.

Asked to identify factors most responsible for Mitchell's surge in the final weeks of the campaign, Amy Walter, senior editor of the Cook Political Report, put voters' overall anti-GOP sentiment at the top of the list. "Hayworth's personality" was second.

"His blustery, in-your-face style is not serving him well," Walter said. "Voters aren't in the mood for that in a year they want something different."

In contrast, Mitchell has impressed her as "a nice guy."

The Arizona Republic's Oct. 27 editorial favoring Mitchell over "the bully" surely played a significant part in Mitchell's ascendancy, analysts Sabato and Walter said. (The paper's editorial and news departments are separate.)

In a rebuttal, Hayworth said he is "tough," not a bully, and pointed to a number of unsung accomplishments, including the Aerospace Education Laboratory named for him at Central Arizona College.

Immigration

Hayworth has not been afraid to buck his party's leadership all the way up to President Bush. Hayworth argues that Bush is wrong in supporting immigration reform that sets up a guest-worker program and makes some current undocumented residents eligible for citizenship.

"Friends, that's amnesty," Hayworth says.

He stresses that secure borders should be the nation's top priority, and illegal immigration should not be tolerated.

On immigration, Mitchell is aligned with Bush, Sen. John McCain and most of the rest of Arizona's congressional delegation. Hayworth, he says, "believes in making felons of all 12 million illegal immigrants and shipping them out."

Iraq, taxes

Hayworth wants a continuing military commitment for victory in the war on terrorism.

Mitchell says the terrorist threat has grown as chaos continues in Iraq. He calls for the administration to collaborate with and be more accountable to Congress for a plan to wind down the U.S. role. He has few specifics on what might work.

Hayworth points with pride to tax cuts he has helped enact as Arizona's first and only member of the Ways and Means Committee. He warns that Mitchell would raise taxes.

Mitchell, citing budget deficits and the national debt, counters that spending has been out of control under Bush, and the economic picture appears bright only because the nation is borrowing more heavily, mainly from China.

Ethical issues

Mitchell's television commercials and mailers have ripped Hayworth for receiving campaign funds from interests connected with disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff, failing five times to report donations from those sources, and putting his wife on the payroll of his political action committee.

Asked if he believes Hayworth did anything inappropriate for the lobbyist or clients, Mitchell says, "Not that I know of."

In turn, Hayworth's campaign has hammered Mitchell as unethical for two actions that prompted law-enforcement inquiries. Neither case stuck.

"Perhaps we can agree that neither one of these guys is a crook," offers Libertarian candidate Warren Severin.

Mitchell's transgressions

Mitchell was cited for a misdemeanor and admitted having removed campaign signs planted in front of his own by his opponent in their 2000 race for the state Senate.

The opponent's signs, featuring an arrow pointing to Mitchell's, said, "Voted for alt-fuels fiasco," a reference to a large tax credit to buyers of vehicles that burn alternative fuelsA judge acquitted Mitchell on grounds that the signs were meaningless unless placed with Mitchell's, and he had a right to convey his own message without interference.

In a second case, Mitchell was mayor of Tempe in 1988 when he, City Council members and two administrators accepted tickets to Arizona Cardinals games in exchange for allowing team members to use parking spaces at City Hall.

The 20 season tickets were worth a total of $9,600. The Attorney General's Office declined to prosecute, saying there was no intent to commit a crime. Mitchell admitted the trade was a "mistake."

Hayworth's funds

The congressman's campaign fund and separate political action committee have been among the largest recipients of political contributions linked with Abramoff.

Nearly all of the total $100,000 came from Indian tribes that hired Abramoff to represent their casino interests. Only $2,250 came from Abramoff himself, and Hayworth contributed that amount to charities after Abramoff pleaded guilty this year to fraud and bribery.

Seven others, including GOP Rep. Bob Ney of Ohio, have been convicted in a continuing investigation into Abramoff's influence-peddling schemes.

"I had no involvement with Abramoff," Hayworth said recently. "He never visited my office. He never lobbied me on any issue."

Campaign finance records show that Abramoff and two of the tribes he represented were the first out-of-state donors to T.E.A.M. PAC, the committee Hayworth activated in 1999 to raise money for other Republican candidates.

Within days of receiving that $11,000, Hayworth used a sports skybox provided by Abramoff for a fund-raiser at a basketball game. On four more occasions, he used skyboxes financed by Abramoff but did not report the value of the accommodations as campaign contributions, as required by federal election laws.

Joe Eule, the congressman's chief of staff, has said Hayworth thought the boxes were provided by tribes themselves. Not listing them on financial reports was an oversight, he said. Hayworth's committee refunded nearly $13,000 to two tribes in 2004.

Records show that since its inception, T.E.A.M. has received about $760,000 in donations, largely from tribes with gambling interests.

Hayworth has broad support among Native Americans as an advocate for their sovereignty, an opponent of taxing casino revenue, and the co-founder of the Native American Congressional Caucus, Eule said.

Since December 1999, when Hayworth's wife, Mary, became T.E.A.M. PAC's only employee, her salary has totaled $146,000, including payroll taxes. Contributions to congressional candidates totaled $270,000 in that period.

"We have broken no laws, we have violated no ethics rules," Hayworth said. "The fact is, my wife works for the PAC, and she earns every penny."