McCain falls to third place among GOP hopefuls

WASHINGTON (By Janet Hook, LATimes) April 11, 2007 — Sen. John McCain, once considered the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, has fallen to third place in a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, and is running behind Fred Thompson, an actor and former senator who has not even entered the race.

Former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani leads the crowded field of announced and potential GOP presidential contenders with support from 29% of Republican primary voters surveyed, followed by Thompson with 15% and McCain with 12%. Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor and fund-raising powerhouse, had 8%.

McCain's showing in the poll is his lowest in any national survey to date, marking a new benchmark in his flagging fortunes. The surge of interest in Thompson is a sign of conservative dissatisfaction with the established field of candidates and underscores just how unsettled the Republican race remains.

"Thompson is a Reagan conservative, and that's what I want," said Robert Little, a poll respondent in Duluth, Ga., who views other leading Republican candidates as unreliable allies on social issues.

Among Democratic primary voters, the campaign continues to solidify into a three-way race, with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton leading Sen. Barack Obama and former Sen. John Edwards by comfortable margins.

But the poll signals larger obstacles for Clinton in match-ups against top Republicans: Even though voters overall said, by a 10-point margin, that they would prefer to see a Democrat win in 2008, the poll shows Clinton eking out only a narrow lead over McCain and trailing Giuliani.

Overall, the poll paints contrasting portraits of the two parties' presidential contests at this early stage in the campaign.

Democrats have a well-settled field that is beginning to divide voters along class and income lines: Clinton is running strongest among lower income voters, while Obama is besting her among higher-earning Democratic voters. Clinton is the favorite among black voters, even though Obama is African American.

The Republican candidate field, by contrast, is still in flux and ill-defined.

"Republicans, unlike Democrats, are not totally satisfied with their choices," said Karlyn H. Bowman, a public opinion analyst at the American Enterprise Institute. "Giuliani is the clear leader, but there's a lot of competition for second place."

The survey also shows significant Republican desire to move beyond the George W. Bush era: 61% of Republican voters surveyed said they wanted the next GOP nominee to campaign on a platform of moving in a new direction. Only 30% said the nominee should call for continuing Bush policies.

The poll was conducted April 5 to 9 under the direction of Susan Pinkus, surveying 1,373 adults, including 1,246 registered voters. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The sample included 557 Democratic primary voters, who were asked about potential Democratic candidates, and 437 Republican primary voters, who were asked about GOP hopefuls. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points for Democrats, and plus or minus 5 for Republicans.

McCain's third place finish - the weakest showing in any major national poll to date - comes at a time when his campaign has been buffeted by trouble on many fronts. He raised less money in the first quarter of 2007 than did Giuliani or former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

McCain's vigorous support for the Iraq war has taken a heavy toll among independent voters, who had been crucial to his 2000 campaign. He drew heavy criticism last week for comments about the security situation in Baghdad that were widely seen as Pollyannaish.

Part of an effort to revive his campaign, McCain has inaugurated a series of major policy addresses. The first one was today on his continuing support for the Iraq war.

Romney has shown great fundraising success, but he drew support from only 8% of the poll's GOP voters. When the survey reduced the field to three candidates, Romney did better. But Giuliani's lead was more decisive: He drew 48% to McCain's 25% and Romney's 20%.

When the broader range of GOP candidates was assessed, Thompson did particularly well among Christian conservatives. He drew support from 21% of people who identified themselves with the religious right, followed by Giuliani with 17% and McCain with 10%. That may reflect social conservatives' suspicion of the other front-runners on key issues such as abortion and gay rights.

"Giuliani, I definitely don't trust him as far as I can throw a bull elephant by his tail," said Little, the Georgia retiree. "John McCain, I don't like him."

Amid uncertainty about whether Thompson will really run for president - he revealed today that he has lymphoma - Giuliani is the second choice of some of the actor's backers.

"He's also a person who was able to clean up and operate New York," said Patrick Ary, a radio announcer in Wichita, Kan., whose first choice for president is Thompson. "If you can succeed in New York City, you can do it almost everywhere."

When Democrats were asked to assess their own broad field of potential candidates - including former Vice President Al Gore, who has not said he will run - Clinton drew support from 33% of respondents. Obama drew 23% and Edwards 14%. Gore, enjoying a burst of publicity surrounding his movie on global warming, was backed by 13%.

When the choice was limited to the top three candidates, support for Clinton jumped to 42%, while Obama drew 32% and Edwards 20%.

The demographic breakdown of supporters spells bad news for Edwards. Although his Southern roots and his pitch to working-class voters would seem to make minorities a natural constituency for him, the poll found he drew only negligible support from blacks.

Clinton has an edge among blacks, even over Obama, in the three way race: 50% of black respondents support Clinton, while 41% support Obama.

"I can't say that just because he's black, I'm going to vote for him," said Kay Harris, an African American retiree in Chicago who favors Clinton. "She has experience. She was around her husband at the time [he was president]. Being a smart woman, she picked up a lot of knowledge."

Ken Hoskins, another black voter, said he favored Obama - not because of his race but because of his challenge to the status quo in national political culture.

"I think today's climate calls for a fresh approach," said Hoskins, an affluent real estate consultant in Virginia.

Indeed, Obama's message of political reform seems to be most appealing to upscale voters like Hoskins. While Clinton won support from 52% of voters with household income under $40,000, compared with 26% for Obama and 16% for Edwards.

Meanwhile, Obama outpolled Clinton in higher-income groups. And while Obama was even with Clinton in support among college graduates, Clinton does better among less educated voters.

Clinton also enjoys a big advantage among women. In a three way race, 44% of women back Clinton, compared with 29% for Obama and 21% for Edwards.

When all voters are asked whether they would prefer a Republican or Democrat to be elected president in 2008, 49% favored Democrats compared to 39% favoring the GOP.

But when they were asked to assess particular candidates, voters did not give such a decided edge to Democrats.

Many of the matchups were so close that the margins were statistically insignificant, including the choice between Clinton and McCain, in which the Democrat drew 45% and the Republican 42%. But that marks a big gain for Clinton since December, when a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll found that 50% chose McCain, compared with 36% for the former first lady.

Giuliani was a more formidable opponent for Clinton, drawing 48% to her 42%. Of the Democratic candidates, only Obama outpolled Giuliani, 46% to 42%.

The poll also provides a window to the different concerns voters are bringing to the campaign: Almost two-thirds of Democratic voters said the war in Iraq was the most important issue for candidates to address, while only 37% of Republicans cited Iraq as the top priority.

GOP voters had more diffuse priorities, including 13% who wanted the candidates to call for tougher illegal immigration laws. By contrast, only 1% of Democrats gave priority to an illegal immigration crackdown.