PHOENIX (By Dan
Nowicki,
Arizona Republic) February 28, 2007 — Sen. John
McCain may have gained ground with religious conservatives with
his Feb. 18 call to overturn the historic Roe vs. Wade,
but the move probably won't help him much with Arizona voters, a
new statewide poll suggests.
More than 60 percent of registered voters still back the Supreme
Court's historic 1973 abortion rights decision, according to a
telephone poll conducted Thursday through Sunday by Arizona
State University and local PBS affiliate Channel 8 (KAET).
But McCain, R-Ariz., still remains the top presidential choice
of the state's Republicans.
The survey had 44 percent backing McCain; 25 percent behind
former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani; 11 percent supporting
former House Speaker Newt Gingrich; 6 percent preferring former
Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney; and 2 percent aligning with Rep.
Duncan Hunter, R-Calif.
An additional 12 percent had no opinion.
Bruce Merrill, a veteran ASU pollster who oversaw the poll, said
McCain is sitting pretty in Arizona, despite having the support
of less than 50 percent of his home state's Republicans.
Nationally, McCain trails Giuliani in the polls. A recent USA
Today-Gallup Poll had Giuliani ahead of McCain 40 percent to
24 percent.
The margin of error for that poll was plus or minus 5 percentage
points.
The 19-percentage-point home-state lead is not bad in a
potential five-way race, Merrill said.
"I would be just blown away if McCain loses in Arizona," he
said.
Among all voters, 61 percent said they want Roe vs. Wade
upheld.
Thirty percent supported overturning it. Nine percent had no
opinion.
Arizona consistently is "pro-choice" by about a 2-1 ratio, said
Merrill, who has gauged opinion on the question for years.
McCain's anti-Roe strategy appeals to socially
conservative Republicans but risks alienating GOP moderates,
Democrats and independents, he said.
"It looks like a pretty simple conservative-liberal thing, but
it really isn't because a lot of conservatives don't feel that
it's the right place for government to be," Merrill said.
"In Arizona, it divides the Republican Party about 50-50."
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., is in a tight race with
Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., among Arizona Democrats.
Merrill's poll had 28 percent backing Clinton; 24 percent
supporting Obama; 16 percent rooting for former Vice President
Al Gore; and 14 percent preferring former Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C.
The other 18 percent had no opinion.
The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points
for the entire sample of 600 registered voters, 6.2 percentage
points for the Republican subsample and 6.4 percentage points
for the Democratic subsample.
