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Polls show, the Hispanic
American dream fraying,
Hispanics will provide the
margin of victory for Barack
Obama in Nevada, Colorado and
New Mexico. |
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LAS VEGAS (By Marjorie Miller, LA
Times) October 26, 2008 In the
last days of the campaign,
Republicans and Democrats are
walking the precincts here with
lists of registered Hispanic voters
who may be the key to victory in the
Western battleground states, and
this is what they are finding:
Economic strife drives Hispanic
vote: padlocks on front doors, "bank
owned" placards in the yards and,
among those still in their homes,
growing support for Barack Obama's
promise of change. Polls show, the
Hispanic American dream fraying,
Hispanics will provide the margin of
victory for Barack Obama in Nevada,
Colorado and New Mexico.
The Spanish-speaking canvassers
immigrants or children of immigrants
themselves come face to face with
a frayed American dream. Many
residents who answer an earnest
knock say they have lost their hotel
and casino jobs and are selling
their cars while awaiting eviction
notices.
"I'm for Obama," Gustavo Mora, 64,
told a Republican campaign worker on
his doorstep last week. "I'm losing
my house. That one next door is
gone. Across the street, Chinese
people bought that house. . . . The
economy is so bad, and I am afraid
[John] McCain has the same ideas as
President Bush, since he's a
Republican too."
Miriam Mora-Barajas, 26, responded
that McCain understands the needs of
entrepreneurs like Mora, who owns
two ice cream trucks and that the
candidate opposes raising taxes on
small businesses because it means
they will have less money to invest.
But Mora said he didn't have money
to invest as it was, and he wondered
how he would rent an apartment with
a credit record showing he defaulted
on his home loan.
"We know Obama is younger and less
experienced, but the country needs a
change," Mora said.
Mora's views are reflected in recent
polls that show Hispanic voters
could provide the margin of victory
for Obama in Nevada, Colorado and
New Mexico states that went for
President Bush in 2004 and which
account for 19 electoral votes. If
either candidate sweeps the big
states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and
Florida, he could win without these
Western states. But if the bigger
states are split, each candidate
would probably look west to forge an
electoral college victory.
The William C. Velasquez Institute,
a nonpartisan public policy center
in Los Angeles, analyzed polling
data from the three Western states
and Florida. It found that Hispanic
voters provided no advantage to
either side in Florida despite
long-standing support for the
Republican Party by Cuban Americans.
In the Western states, the Hispanic
vote is growing in size and as a
percentage of the total, and it is
favoring the Democratic Party more
than in previous years.
Hispanics make up 32.4% of
registered voters in New Mexico,
11.4% in Nevada and 9.9% in
Colorado. The institute examined
data from eight polling firms and
found that Obama's lead over McCain
in Nevada would be 42.4% to 40.7%
without Hispanic voters a
difference that's within the margin
of error. Include Hispanic voters,
however, and Obama's lead grows to
50%, versus 43% for McCain.
That only tells part of the story,
according to Antonio Gonzalez,
president of the institute. In the
last presidential election, 60% of
Hispanics in Nevada voted for
Democratic candidate John F. Kerry
and 40% for Bush. This time, polls
show a 7- to 10-point increase for
Obama.
"Two things are happening: The
Hispanic vote is growing, and
there's a bigger margin of support
for Obama," Gonzalez said. "The
Hispanic vote has been important in
New Mexico for a long time, and it
continues to grow, but in Nevada and
Colorado, this is new."
In New Mexico, McCain has a 4-point
lead without Hispanic voters, and
Obama has an 8-point lead with the
Hispanic vote. And in Colorado, a
statistical tie without Hispanics
jumps to 51% for Obama versus 45%
for McCain when Hispanics are
included.
The McCain campaign had hoped to
grow support among conservative
Hispanics by emphasizing "family
values" issues, such as his
opposition to abortion and same-sex
marriage, as well as the candidate's
history of support for immigration
reform. For Fernando Romero, a
Hispanic Democrat and political
commentator, these were decisive
factors.
"I am antiabortion and pro-life, and
I believe what McCain said at
Saddleback Church: that life begins
at conception," Romero said at a
McCain field office in a Las Vegas
shopping center. "It is difficult to
turn my back on John McCain."
Obama has said he supports the Roe
vs. Wade Supreme Court decision
overturning laws banning abortion.
Romero noted that McCain is a
Westerner who has had lifelong
relationships with Hispanics,
including fellow prisoner of war
Everett Alvarez, who is campaigning
for him. Romero believes the Arizona
Republican will push for immigration
reform, as he has in the past, and
will stand up to the Republican
Party when he thinks it's the right
thing to do.
But Democratic and Republican
activists working the precincts say
the economy is the main issue for
most voters. The war in Iraq is
second on the minds of Hispanics,
many of whom have friends and family
in Iraq. A few said they opposed
McCain for having moved away from
immigration reform as a presidential
candidate.
Both parties are advertising heavily
on Spanish-language radio and
television. At McCain headquarters,
they are distributing "Estamos
Unidos McCain" bumper stickers
and "Latinas con McCain" lawn
signs. At the Culinary Workers Union
Local 226, meanwhile, dozens of
workers loaded up on Barack Obama
door hangers and bilingual lists of
groups offering food, healthcare and
foreclosure aid.
Among those pounding the pavement
for Obama were Santos Garcia, who
voted for George H.W. Bush until the
Gulf War turned him into a Democrat,
and Irma Sanchez, who, like a
majority of Nevada Democrats,
supported Hillary Rodham Clinton in
the state's January caucus. Jairo
Bermudez was another canvasser, but
like many Hispanics, he is not yet a
citizen and therefore is ineligible
to vote. All three are casino shop
stewards lent to the Obama campaign.
They carried red binders full of
street maps and the names and
addresses of union members who were
registered voters. By the fourth day
of early voting in Nevada, about
70,000 people had already cast
ballots in Clark County, and
campaign workers were hoping to get
many more to the polls before
election day.
The Obama supporters walked past
empty stucco houses to others in
full Halloween regalia, the smell of
cooking chiles rellenos wafting over
the East Las Vegas neighborhood.
Vans parked curbside advertised
small businesses: Instead of Joe the
Plumber, it was Javier's
Professional Carpet Cleaning, Pepe
Construction Framing and Magaρas
Tree Service.
Like mail carriers, the canvassers
worried about angry dogs and worse.
Garcia said that Obama workers had
been roughed up and that one had had
a gun pulled on him recently. Most
doorbells went unanswered, because
the occupants were either at work,
sleeping after the graveyard shift
or uninterested in talking politics.
When they found a registered voter
at home, the canvassers switched
into get-out-the-vote mode. They
offered a ride to the early-voting
booths. If the resident said he
planned to vote Nov. 4, they marked
their sheets to check back on
election day. If the resident said
she planned to vote that afternoon,
canvassers made a note to check for
her name on a list of voters who had
cast ballots that is issued by the
county each night. And if the name
wasn't there, they would circle back
the following day.
"We Hispanics sometimes say 'maρana,'
but then maρana we say 'tomorrow,' "
said Anna Ruiz, another canvasser.
At one house, Garcia was surprised
to find that the registered voter
was Jose Torres, 46, an old friend
and former colleague in Washington
state whom he hadn't seen in years.
Both had worked as butchers there
before heading south to
better-paying jobs in desert
casinos.
Torres said he had lost his job at
Caesars Palace when tourism began to
drop off nine months ago. He got
another job at Trump International
Hotel and Tower but was laid off
three months ago. He pointed to two
Ford Malibus in the frontyard and
said he was trying to make a living
buying and selling automobiles. It
wasn't enough. "I'm going to lose
this house," Torres said.
Garcia asked Torres who he was
voting for.
"Por el moreno," Torres said,
using a respectful word for a black
man. "He's the best. The other one
is just going to keep helping the
rich."
Garcia, 59, said he encounters
Hispanics worried that if Obama
wins, African Americans will feel
empowered and lord their status over
Hispanics, particularly at work.
Other voters, however, argue that
anyone who has faced discrimination
would be good for all minorities.
"We've been to Republican houses
that are voting for Obama, and we've
seen morenos who are voting
for McCain," said Bermudez.
Irma Martinez, 48, finds a lot of
disappointed Clinton supporters.
"They say they wanted to vote for
Hillary, and I say, 'I did too. But
this is the one who won, and we have
to support him. He can help our
people,' " she said between houses.
As the sun went down, children came
out to ride bikes, and men gathered
in a frontyard on Samantha Street to
usher in the evening with Bud Light
and ranchera music.
"How can McCain say the economy is
strong the way we are here?" asked
Jesus Veliz, 42, who works in a
Mexican restaurant. "We're not only
worse off here in the United States,
but back in Mexico they're worse off
than before."
The others nodded. They worked in an
Italian restaurant, at a casino and
at a construction company but
worried that the work might not last
beyond the election.
"No hay bisnes," said Ivan
Rodriguez, 25. "If there's no
business, they don't make money, and
we don't work."
