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ARLINGTON, Va.
(Dan Nowicki, Arizona
Republic) June 30, 2007 — Sen. John McCain's next round of
fundraising totals could hold his political future.
McCain, an Arizona Republican, is under pressure to show an
improvement in his ability to raise money. With a stalled
presidential campaign, McCain desperately needs the momentum
that a strong three months of fundraising would bring.
In the first three months of the year, he raised less than the
leading candidates in both parties.
As one of the most visible proponents of the Senate's ill-fated immigration-reform plan, McCain has taken a battering from conservative activists and radio talk show hosts. His fortunes have fallen in recent polls in the key early states of Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada.
And former Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn., a friend of his, is poised to cause more problems for McCain by muscling into the GOP race.
"There's a growing buzz in political circles that McCain's presidential campaign is on an inevitable downward spiral," said Stuart Rothenberg, a Washington, D.C., political analyst who publishes the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. "McCain needs to get some good buzz for a change. Most of the buzz that he's been getting for months now has been bad. It's as simple as that. The narrative is defining who he is."
That negative "narrative" is perhaps McCain's biggest challenge. Many political handicappers, pundits, radio talkers and other opinionmakers have all but written off McCain, the one-time presumptive 2008 Republican frontrunner.
It's tough to shake a perception of a hapless campaign, but a solid fundraising showing for April, May and June could prompt critics take a fresh look at him.
"If McCain comes out with second-quarter numbers that raise eyebrows in a very positive way, then reporters are going to have to say, 'Well, there's a lot more support out there than we thought. This is a campaign that is technically well-run, and they're raising money,' " Rothenberg said. "On the contrary, if the numbers are bad, a lot of people are going to write that these numbers confirm the buzz. And that would be bad."
Lessons learned
McCain's underperforming first-quarter fundraising numbers contributed to his run of bad publicity. He reported to the Federal Election Commission that he raised $13.1 million in January, February and March. That figure would have been impressive in past election cycles, but this year, he couldn't compete with the massive amounts of money raised by GOP rivals Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney and top Democrats Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards. Although McCain actually had more individual contributors than his GOP rivals, McCain himself said he was disappointed and vowed to do better next time.Romney's first-quarter filings showed $23 million in contributions, which included $2.35 million that the wealthy former Massachusetts governor lent his campaign. Romney already has signaled that he has poured even more money into his campaign account this quarter.
For his part, McCain took his first-quarter finish as a wake-up call. He replaced his longtime finance director and authorized other staffing and spending adjustments. He intensified his fundraising schedule, which included 35 events in June.
Marc Ambinder, a blogger for the Atlantic, this month quoted John Weaver, McCain's chief political strategist, as saying the campaign will "do better than we did last quarter." McCain's campaign didn't dispute the quote but otherwise wouldn't discuss specific details of its second-quarter financial situation and downplayed the stakes.
"We will have the money necessary to communicate the senator's message," said Brian Jones, a McCain campaign spokesman.
"There's nothing we haven't been able to do because of money. These artificial benchmarks are just that: artificial. They don't necessarily speak to the quality of the candidate or the quality of the campaign, or are determinant of how people are going to vote seven months from now."
However, political insiders, such as contributors, and the national media closely monitor the financial reports to gauge a candidate's viability.
Romney, who is little-known nationally, received positive attention because of his money-raising prowess.
$3 million online push
A couple of campaign fundraising e-mails give a glimpse into McCain's late-quarter money push.This week, Terry Nelson, McCain's campaign manager, sent out a fundraising solicitation touting McCain's record of challenging congressional overspending and riling "Washington lobbyists and power brokers."
The e-mail, headlined "It's up to us," mentions the campaign's latest online fundraising goal.
"With your generous contribution today, we can thank John McCain for taking our side in the crusade against wasteful Washington," Nelson writes.
"Your immediate support is needed to help us meet our goal of raising $3 million before midnight on Saturday."
Another e-mail offers an official McCain 2008 polo shirt for a minimum contribution of $100. A donation of $150 or more scores two shirts.
In an interview, Jones also said McCain's reputation as "a principled reformer" and his penchant for tweaking powerful special interests has hampered fundraising.
Many usually reliable sources of campaign cash are shut to McCain.
"Some of the natural fundraising constituencies aren't there like people would expect them to be," Jones said. "That just means we have to work harder in terms of fundraising."
'Cooked and done'?
McCain likely won't end speculation about his campaign's immediate health unless he reports a truly extraordinary amount. Political experts and TV talking heads can always argue about whether he needed to raise $20 million or some other amount to keep his White House hopes alive.At minimum, McCain must "post some incredibly impressive numbers if he wants to resuscitate his campaign," said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia-Charlottesville.
McCain's problems are far deeper than just money, although fundraising is "an essential element," Sabato said. "He's got to post some much better polling numbers and somehow reconnect with Republicans. I never thought that I would ever see McCain in single digits in Iowa and South Carolina.
"An awful lot of people who I trust in politics have said to me, 'He's cooked and done.' "
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. surveys conducted this month had McCain plummeting to just 6 percent in Iowa, home of the first caucuses, 7 percent in South Carolina and 8 percent in Nevada, with margins of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. Earlier this year, most polls indicated that McCain was either leading or was competitive in the key early states.
McCain insiders dismiss the Mason-Dixon polls but acknowledge the contentious immigration battle has done some damage. McCain's collaboration with Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., on the bill has reminded some conservatives of why they have long been wary of McCain.
A Strategic Vision poll of likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers conducted over the weekend and released Wednesday had McCain with 10 percent but still trailing Romney (23 percent), Thompson (17 percent) and Giuliani (14 percent). The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
"It's in flux, but clearly Thompson is on the way up and Romney is on the way up," Sabato said. "McCain and Giuliani, the two early frontrunners, are on the way down."
Can McCain come back?
When asked about the prevailing media view that McCain's candidacy is doomed, Jones said McCain takes stands that he believes are right on topics such as immigration and won't back off because of media criticism or second-guessing about the political ramifications."John McCain is who John McCain is, and John McCain is not going to make decisions based on conventional wisdom in the media," Jones said.
Rothenberg said the situation isn't hopeless for McCain. Although it's not a great position to be in, he said, the media's 2007 storyline about McCain is reminiscent of its 2003 storyline about Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., he said.
Kerry went on to win the Democratic nomination the next year despite early campaign stumbles.
Besides, "people who write about politics like to write about how the conventional wisdom is being turned on its head," Rothenberg said.
McCain was expected to hold a fundraiser in Chicago on Friday before returning to Arizona for the weekend.
